At this point, it’s obvious that crypto has a significant amount of trouble attached to it, as so many scammers and fraudulent firms have been exposed.
Amazingly enough, now the SEC looks like they are ready to go after Binance, which could be a bit of a death blow to crypto for a while. At this point, I don’t even know that it’s so much in the accumulation zone, just that most institutional money is probably gone.
And when you think about it, why wouldn’t they be? Institutions are not in the markets to lose 70% in one year. Institutions like that go bankrupt rather quickly because they are almost always trading investor money. Having said that, one of the most recent bullish cases for Bitcoin that I have heard has been that the retail traders at the body and near the $60,000 level have yet to sell. That is not persistence, that is what I would refer to as “holding the bag.” In other words, somebody who bought at a much better price just sold you a piece of code for $60,000.
Ultimately, this is a market that we will have to find some type of real use for down the road. As just a speculative asset, Bitcoin only has a certain amount of shelf life. However, if it does start to take on a real-world use-case scenario, then it’ll be very interesting to see what happens. I understand that some places accept Bitcoin as cash, but those places are becoming smaller, not bigger. I also understand that there are some economies where Bitcoin is much more prevalent than places like the United States, but small Third-World economies are not going to be enough to keep Bitcoin viable. It needs to be adopted in places like the United States, Germany, the United Kingdom, Canada, and so on. Until then, it’s a fringe asset and will be treated as such. Right now, there’s just no interest in Bitcoin, so any buying of the asset right now is just hoping for a massive change in monetary policy.
Speaking of which, everybody thinks that the Federal Reserve is going to loosen its monetary policy sometime next year. Ask yourself the following question: “Where are all the Bitcoin buyers?” I suspect this market drops to $15,000.
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