I’m using the 200-Day EMA as a bit of a signal as to which way we’re going.
The S&P 500 Index has pulled back during the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see a lot of noise right around the 4300 level. The E-mini contract also has the 200 Day EMA sitting just above there, so it does make a certain amount of sense that we have seen a lot of noisy behavior in this general vicinity. Furthermore, you can make an argument that perhaps the market is a little overbought at this point.
The fundamental situation has not been good. Wall Street continues to start buying stocks every chance it gets since traders are hoping that the Federal Reserve will step off the brakes, giving the opportunity for cheap money to be able to gamble with again. This is the monster that the Federal Reserve has created, and therefore it’s the monster that they must deal with.
If we were to turn around a break above the 200 Day EMA, it would open quite a bit of buying pressure, perhaps sending this market all the way up to the 4500 level. The E-mini contract has been very bullish right along with the underlying index, but at this point, it’s likely that we will continue to see a lot of pressure.
If we do break down below the bottom of the candlestick for the trading session on Wednesday, then it’s possible that we could pull back to the 4100 level.We are going to see a lot of back-and-forth and noisy trading.This is a market that I think will continue to move on the latest perception of the Federal Reserve.
Next week we have the problems with the central bank speakers at the Jackson Hole Symposium. They will be doing everything they can to be serious about fighting inflation, so I think we continue to see a lot of chop and back and forth. However, I’m using the 200-Day EMA as a bit of a signal as to which way we’re going. In general, it’s obvious that there is a lot of buying pressure, but at this point in time I don’t think confidence is something that is a for sure deal.
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