USD/JPY Forecast: Pulls Back Against Yen After Jobs Number – 07 November 2022

The USD/JPY has pulled back significantly during the trading session after the jobs number.The pullback one is for roughly 1%, keeping it within the recent consolidation area, so it’s difficult to say this is anything other than a typical back-and-forth type of market.The 50-Day EMA sits just below, and that should be kept in the back of your mind. With this, I think it’s only a matter time before we see buyers come back into the picture, but we may have a little bit of weakness ahead.

Quite frankly, the market could use a nice pullback in order to offer value in the US dollar, as the markets continue to act like they have some type of weird meth addiction. At this point, it’s probably worth noting that Wall Street is already trying to come up with the bullish narrative of risk appetite, despite the fact that Jerome Powell has explicitly said that he was going to stay tight much longer than they anticipated, and possibly even at a higher rate. All of this sets up for failure when it comes to risk appetite, but bear markets when it comes to risk appetite are almost always difficult to hang onto, because the slightest hint of bullish pressure people pile into the market. After a while, reality sets in and they take the obligatory punch the face.

It looks at this point like we are trying to figure out what the next catalyst is going to be, and we may have some quiet trading for a little while. That’s not necessarily a bad thing, because quite frankly the ulcers that I get on a day-to-day basis would probably use a rest.

The volatility has been very difficult, although ironically this pair has been the least difficult to deal with because it’s simply a matter of finding the time and place to buy the US dollar against the Japanese yen, accepting the fact that the Bank of Japan may come in and smash everybody in the face with a hammer occasionally. That being said, the interventions continue to fail, and all they can do is more or less slow down the rate of change to the upside. Because of this, I look at every time this market pulls back as offering “cheap US dollars.”

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